european weather model hurricane laura

GFS trend gif four runs ending with Aug 25 12z Yes. Laura is expected to be a major hurricane. Very strange discrepancy. ... As typically happens with these storms, weather prediction models tend to gain a better handle on hurricanes within three days of landfall. WFO Raleigh 4KM WRF-ARW Run National Models. I don’t even watch the news anymore. Is it possible to predict what wind speeds we might expect in Spring, TX? Marco’s center of circulation continued to head toward the Louisiana coast, but with virtually no showers and thunderstorms around it. Forecaster discretion? Anything available online? Eric and Matt, The forecasters mention it in their forecast discussions. Unlike you guys, a well-known local newspaper in an email yesterday already mentioned a Cat 4 storm hitting Houston. The home they ran from was just fine. I still remember reading you, post after post in the middle of the night with Harvey… each of your predictions becoming a reality. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. You guys are super heroes for sure! Laura made landfall in eastern Cuba on Sunday night. So what you need to do is seriously evaluate the refuge shelter you stay in. Along this track, Houston would very narrowly escape the worst of Laura’s winds, waves, and rains—these would impact Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Southwestern Louisiana. What are the rain chances inches wise for Houston. We depend on you to inform us about what our family and friends are facing. Wind gusts between 30 – 45 mph were common in central Cuba on Monday morning. And now we can all quit saying how the Euro is better than the American. Steering currents will keep Laura moving steadily after it comes ashore, so it is unlikely to stall out and produce the type of catastrophic inland rains generated by Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. Regional Models . I don’t need an update every 5 minutes since that just means that this is for more room for hyperbole. You also agree to our Terms of Service. , If you follow TWC’s track, the storm has been heading significantly more northwest than west, and it seems the models keep wanting it to go west but in reality it has been tracking more north. And I can’t see why one would favour HRWF over, say, ECMWF ensembles… At the least you’d think they’d aim the cone between these two sets of possibilities. The UKMET model’s 0Z Monday forecast predicted a landfall southwest of Houston, Texas, around 8 p.m. EDT Wednesday as an intensifying hurricane. BJ, you just want your kids to come visit, dontcha??? Then I put the gas in the cars once the season ends. As of 2 p.m. EDT Monday, Marco was centered about 40 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Laura was embedded in a moderately dry region of the atmosphere, with a mid-level relative humidity of 60%; moderate upper-level wind shear of 10 – 15 knots was affecting the storm, driving dry air into the core and slowing development. The storm ripped apart buildings and hundreds of thousands are without power. The tub water also is used for flushing toilets. The worst of the storm surge is expected to travel up the Calcasieu River area. Not sick of hearing about it at all, guys. Basically, the models are swinging back and forth a bit, and major changes to the cone at this juncture would actually harm preparations and response. This process may be slowed when Laura encounters a cool eddy in the Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, though, and in addition Laura will have to build up the entire northern portion of its circulation. Laura is the earliest L-named storm in the Atlantic Basin, breaking a record held by Luis, which formed Aug. 29, 1995. Speaking for myself your forecasts and hurricane info is the only one I need. Trying to decide whether to evacuate my handicapped mom. In Haiti, a personal weather station in the capital of Port-au-Prince recorded 6.61 inches of rain. While the wind damage to Port Arthur and Beaumont was severe with Rita, Ike’s overall impact was equal or worse for Port Arthur. See our, Read a limited number of articles each month, You consent to the use of cookies and tracking by us and third parties to provide you with personalized ads, Unlimited access to washingtonpost.com on any device, Unlimited access to all Washington Post apps, No on-site advertising or third-party ad tracking. The cone is assigned a standard width each year, based on typical errors over the previous five years of tropical cyclones tracks. Tropical Storm Gaston hit South Carolina at 12Z Aug. 29, and Tropical Storm Hermine hit Massachusetts just 39 hours later. The most recent double landfall occurred in 2004, when two pairs of double landfalls occurred. The Weather Channel’s Greg Diamond has pointed out that Tropical Storm Laura is on a similar path to the Sept. 8, 1900, Galveston Hurricane, the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Count me in as another who relies on your calm, rational updates. Thank you! Hurricane Laura slammed into the Gulf Coast as a Category 4 storm early Thursday, bringing massive winds and dangerous storm surge. ugh, I don’t have the strength for this year anymore. Specifically as far as storm surge goes. Give us a storm surge everyone safely takes How much of the realignment is due to what the models have been outputting and how much is due to Laura’s wobble? Clean out a bathtub or 2 and fill with water for washcloth baths outside the tub. Forever grateful! You guys are essential! Anyone know if it’s a technical issue onboard the aircraft or what? With the wind threat should we be considering boarding up windows if we are in the Pearland area? Update: the 12Z  Monday run of UKMET model had a landfall location near the Texas/Louisiana border, more in line with the official NHC forecast. Please enable cookies on your web browser in order to continue. However, a landfall anywhere from the East End of Galveston Island to the Texas-Louisiana border remains in play. After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast. Or just hasn’t built storms to cover the inner core in that quad. I could use some primal scream therapy tonight myself. JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center evaluated last year’s forecasts and found that human predictions typically fare better overall compared to any one particular forecast model. I can’t blame them – I stocked up on propane cylinders for the gas stove I bought 8 years ago and never used. I’m in Clear Lake and almost all of us are staying. You also can treat the tub water with 10-20 drops of plain, unscented chlorine bleach per gallon of water. By clicking “I agree” below, you consent to the use by us and our third-party partners of cookies and data gathered from your use of our platforms. Thank you Eric and Matt, so much! We understand. By tomorrow morning we should probably have it pretty well nailed down. Hope it doesn’t get too damaged this time. At 2 p.m. EDT Monday, Laura was located over the waters south of west-central Cuba, about 60 miles from the island. I noticed that you switched from this morning’s HWRF. There are still some models that dissent from this scenario, and there remains the potential for Laura to wobble as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. We aren’t sick of it, you guys are helping me prepare and getting me through the day! God Some of the other sensationalistic reports make it so that no one can make a good decision. Residents along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should anticipate the possibility that Laura will rapidly intensify right up until landfall, potentially reaching major hurricane status. Harvey stalled, thus the massive flooding. We’ve been preparing since last week as you advised. Why is recon data on Levi’s site not updating? Out of the 314 NHC track forecasts issued by the agency, errors were a little worse than average for the short lead times, but were better at longer forecast times. Thank you for keeping us informed and being so forthcoming. So in two days we’ll either be starting the clean-up process, or looking to help our friends to the east, in the Beaumont area and Southwestern Louisiana. Store. Marco is no longer expected to generate a significant storm surge. Maybe by tomorrow morning, maybe not. Expect 'tropical' weather from Gulf storms, forecasters say, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. HURRICANE PREDICTIONS. Not talking about centre lines, of course. It isn’t. I like to know what to expect. They did not buckle to the pressure of the other global models but went with their own forecasting expertise. We have seen little strengthening of Laura through the early afternoon hours, but that’s to be expected. (Copyright 2020 The Associated Press. And then by Thursday afternoon it should be all over as Laura pulls away. Thanks! (Weather Bell). Many have faith in your good work. European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecast System. Laura drink some dry air I am so glad that you all are giving us the straight up information that we need to actually make decisions. Found you guys (a little too late, unfortunately) right before harvey. I don’t even pretend to be a weatherman, but from the map and the current speculation of that colored map on wind speeds, and the current projected path: it looks like wind speeds in Spring less than 30 mph, except for gusts That feature is south of the COC. I check frequently to see if you have posted a new status updat. That type of nonsense, and generally bad reporting elsewhere made me cancel that subscription years ago. Winds were generally 10 to 20 mph across southeast Louisiana, with gusts to 24 mph at Port Fourchon. Good day all. If a power line is knocked out, having one night of AC and no spoiled food in our refrigerators is worth it for me. I think we can safely rule out a landfall near Freeport or the San Luis Pass, which would be the absolute worst case scenario for Houston and Galveston. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com They usually damage roofs, take down fences, and weed out weaker trees. There was a one-run wiggle toward Sabine Pass but the model soon clamped back on Cameron, Louisiana and varied little. When Hurricane Laura approaches the Texas-Louisiana coastline and makes landfall, ... One weather model, the European model, even indicates a … Make sure you’re ready that’s all I’ve got. Thanks again for your honesty and always excellent analysis. We appreciate your efforts and voice of reason!! We’re not out of those woods yet, by any means: We still have a good five weeks to go before that sigh of relief, so stay vigilant! The home they took refuge in got a big tree plopped down on top of it. On Monday, the intense showers and thunderstorms (convection) associated with Marco were being pushed into the Florida Panhandle. European 10 Day Computer Model. Which model was best during Hurricane Laura and other lessons we learned Frank Billingsley , Chief Meteorologist Published: August 31, 2020, 12:03 pm Updated: August 31, 2020, 2:07 pm The whole cone is strangely shifted relative to the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Climate Change. (We first mentioned the possibility of Marco and Laura way back on August 16, which seems like several lifetimes ago). Might not taste like Evian, but it too would be safe to drink. Laura became a hurricane Tuesday shortly after entering the warm and deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, gathering strength on a path to hit the U.S. coastline.

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